The College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its top 25 every Tuesday until the conference championships. The Action Network will bring you the latest CFP rankings along with power ratings, current futures odds and some chatter about the paths of the potential teams involved.
Updated Odds – November 29th
|Legend: No Odds|
No. 7 Miami’s loss to Pitt had no bearing on the CFP picture, as a one-loss Hurricanes team could win the ACC Championship Game and secure a spot. That may be an unlikely scenario with No. 1 Clemson favored by more than a touchdown for this weekend’s game, though. A win by Miami would vault them into the playoff, while a win by the Tigers may secure the No. 1 seed and a trip as the home team to the Sugar Bowl. Clemson is currently listed -400 on BetOnline to make the playoff.
Win and you’re in for No. 3 Oklahoma. All that is left is a rematch with No. 11 TCU in Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners were able to expose the Horned Frogs’ lack of defense in the explosiveness department in their previous matchup, and Saturday will determine if TCU learned from its mistakes. Is there a path for TCU to make the CFB playoff?
No spread is too large for No. 4 Wisconsin, which took down Minnesota on the road to end the regular season. Wisconsin begins a journey starting with No. 8 Ohio State where a national championship requires three underdog wins in a row. The Buckeyes beat Michigan in a non-cover, but all the talk surrounds what will happen if they win the Big Ten Championship Game. Will the committee take a two-loss Power Five conference champion like Ohio State over a one-loss Alabama? The debate will be furious, but only one team will make the playoff if the Buckeyes prevail Saturday night.
No. 10 USC took the bye week to watch No. 18 Washington State fold to their rival, No. 13 Washington, in the Apple Cup. The Trojans will now face No. 12 Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The scenario for USC to make the playoff would require a number of upsets and the selection committee jumping the Trojans over one-loss teams like Alabama. The Rose Bowl will host one of the College Football Semifinal games, but it’s unlikely to feature a traditional Pac-12 or Big Ten team.
No. 5 Alabama suffered a loss to No. 2 Auburn, setting up a showdown between War Eagle and No. 6 Georgia. Is there room for the Crimson Tide to get into the CFP as a one-loss team without a conference championship? Alabama’s No. 5 ranking would indicate that any mistake from the top four would be beneficial for Tide. The post-release interview with the chairman of the selection committee may have indicated that a conference championship would carry more value, and that could leave Alabama out. The Tide are currently listed on 5Dimes at -150 to make the playoff.
Group of Five
The CFP selection committee has No. 14 Central Florida, No. 20 Memphis and No. 25 Fresno State in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bowl. The Group of Five is essentially out of the running for the CFP, but UCF and Memphis should provide a glimpse into two of the most highly-touted coaches on the Group of Five market. Both Scott Frost and Mike Norvell should be in Power Five positions when we kick in 2018.
Week 14 Add: None (unless no Ohio State future)
Ohio State will need a victory over Wisconsin (the Buckeyes are currently six-point favorites) in the Big Ten Championship Game and then hope the coin flip with Alabama goes their way. Ohio State would have a number of reasons to be selected over the Tide, including strength of schedule and a conference championship. We suggested these reasons last week when Ohio State was +1550 for the national championship. If you did not get a piece of last week’s column, the Buckeyes are still offered at +800. Not only does Ohio State look poised to win against Wisconsin, it could have a successful run in the playoff.
Week 7: Virginia Tech 100-1
Week 8: Wisconsin 25-1
Week 9: Georgia 12-1
Week 10: Clemson 13-1
Week 11: USC 100-1
Week 12: Pass (Clemson +725)
Week 13: Ohio State +1550
Week 14: Pass (Ohio State +800)
*All odds sourced from Bovada on Nov. 29 unless otherwise noted