FA Cup Final Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Can Mohamed Salah, Liverpool Defeat Chelsea at Wembley Stadium?
David Klein – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool standouts Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino.
- Liverpool takes on Chelsea in Saturday’s FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium.
- The Reds, who are +105 moneyline favorites, are chasing the rare quadruple in soccer.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the match below and explains why he’s found value on a scoring prop tied to Liverpool.
Chelsea vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120 /-115)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 11:45 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Come the end of Saturday, Liverpool could have added its second trophy to the 2021-2022 season cabinet in its continuing chase of the rare quadruple.
Having already claimed the League Cup, the global powerhouse faces Chelsea once again, this time for the FA Cup crown in a match at Wembley Stadium. The first final between the clubs proved a thrilling one, with Liverpool winning 11-10 on penalty kicks after the match ended 0-0 in regular time.
That represented the third consecutive draw between the clubs this season — the meeting at Anfield produced a 1-1 finish, while 2-2 was the result at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea Hoping to End FA Cup Final Skid
Not since 2018 has Chelsea hoisted the FA Cup trophy, but it hasn’t been for a lack of trying.
Saturday’s final will be the third in a row for the Blues, which fell to Arsenal in 2020 before coming up short against Leicester City last year. This time around, the run to the championship match has come fairly easily, with Chelsea only having to face one Premier League side in five prior matches.
That said, manager Thomas Tuchel’s clubide has dominated those fixtures and deservedly reached the final. Through five FA Cup ties, Chelsea owns a +9 goal differential and has won all five games on big scoring chances, producing a cumulative +12 differential on big scoring chances alone.
Surprisingly, it has also gotten better as the opposition quality increased. Just in its semifinal against Crystal Palace — a 2-0 win for Chelsea — it doubled up its foe on shots and won the big scoring chances battle by a 3-1 margin.
Since that fixture, Chelsea has found itself in very peculiar form. The Blues are 2-2-2 (W-L-D) and have a +3.3 expected goal differential, with a +1 realistic goal differential. The club has also allowed two of its last six opponents to create at least two xG overall. In all 30 previous EPL fixtures, the Blues only conceded more than two xG on two occasions.
Liverpool Trying to Secure Another Trophy
Much like Chelsea, Liverpool is looking to end a drought of FA Cup wins. Not since the 2005-06 campaign have the Reds claimed this title, with its last final coming in the 2011-12 season.
On paper, Liverpool’s path to the final has proven more difficult than what Chelsea endured. The Reds faced two EPL sides — Manchester City and Norwich City — in addition to two Championship sides — Cardiff City and Nottingham Forest — en route to the final.
The marquee match against City in the semifinal round saw Liverpool win 3-2, but drew with its counterpart on big scoring chances (3-3) in the contest. However, Liverpool dominated the four prior fixtures, producing a +6 goal differential and a +8 differential on big scoring chances.
This is also a Liverpool side that arrives at the FA Cup final in great form. Since playing that semifinal against Manchester City, manager Jürgen Klopp’s side is 6-0-1 (W-L-D) across all competitions and has a +9.2 xGDiff in those fixtures, per fbref.com.
Further, the Reds have only conceded 0.58 xG/90 minutes in those contests and kept all seven sides under 1.2 xG in the process.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Although the EFL Cup final ended in a scoreless tie, it was a wide-open affair.
Liverpool and Chelsea combined for seven big scoring chances and 31 total shots. For context, the 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge saw 25 total shots and five big chances.
With Chelsea playing so wide open, I expect Liverpool’s attack to have its way at Wembley. In the two matches played 11 versus 11 this season, Liverpool has generated seven big scoring chances, but has scored only twice.
If Chelsea’s defense is allowing 2.0-plus xG to Wolves and Arsenal, what will happen against this Liverpool attack? Given Klopp’s ability to rotate fresh players, expect a strong effort from the Reds as they chases their second trophy of the long season.
I won’t fault you if you choose to back Liverpool on the moneyline, but I simply prefer its team total, as it takes an improving Chelsea attack out of the equation.
Pick: Liverpool — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)