Kevin Kisner handled difficult conditions at Quail Hollow about as well as anyone, but it’s Hideki Matsuyama who will go into the final round as the favorite.
Matsuyama sits one stroke back of Kisner, but tops the betting odds at +175. Kisner comes in just behind at +335 while Justin Thomas is +450.
Only two other players are listed at less than 33/1 with Louis Oosthuizen clocking in at 6/1 and Chris Stroud at 9/1, so it appears the books have whittled the field to five players who have a realistic shot of winning.
The final round has a good chance to be proffitable with a 125/1 Kisner ticket and 50/1 on Oosthuizen suggested so far this week. My play will be to wait until the back nine on Sunday and reevaluate the live odds and see if there’s a need to make any hedges.
I’ll be keeping an eye on anyone who can post a good number early. If someone can get into the clubhouse at 5 or 6-under par, that may well be enough. We saw how difficult the closing stretch could be as Jason Day’s chances evaporated on the 18th hole.
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) August 13, 2017
As for some longshots, the only one I’d consider right now is Patrick Reed at 40/1.
Reed is five back at 2-under, but he’s good enough to go out a have that one great round and post a number.
I’ll be on two matchup plays heading into Sunday. I like Kisner to beat Stroud in the final pairing. Kisner has been in these spots a lot in the past couple of years and he rarely fades, so I think he can beat Stroud heads up.
I’ll also be taking Chez Reavie over Francesco Molinari. Reavie is No. 1 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and outside of the second round where Molinari got to play in by far the easiest conditions of the week, Reavie has been outplaying him.
Recapping the props and full tournament matchups, Sung Kang will take a two shot lead over Byeong Hun An for low Korean at +450. An will be availble at plus-money on Bovada so a hedge is possible here, but I’ll be letting ride. K.T. Kim is also in play but is eight shots back of Kang and unlikely to factor.
In the low Scandanavian play, David Lingmerth is still in with a shot at 8/1. Lingmerth is 3-over and trails Henrik Stenson by two shots for the top spot. Thorbjorn Olesen is also at 3-over with Lingmerth, while Alex Noren sits at 5-over.
The one full tournament matchup left in play isn’t looking good. Charley Hoffman trails Zach Johnson by four shots. Hoffman will be one of the first guys on the course and could find a low round, but it’s hard to see that one cashing.
4th Round Plays
Kisner over Stroud
Reavie over Molinari
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